This whole story is quite scary as one begins to wonder whether it will be the event at the beginning of the end, a precursor of it or just another bad thing.
Those of us who watch post apocalyptic movies particularly, will be struck by the similarities to a zombie movie. Over the opening credits you see newspaper headlines and ticker-tape under the news; it starts with a case or two here or there, there is the first death, it spreads to other countries and then quarantine kicks in.
Then tipping point is when the infected break out of quarantine and start to rampage. I believe the government are, or probably should be, making plans to cut off the Wirral Peninsula.
However the most serious point and the one we would all like to know, is what chance one has of dying if one contracts the virus.
The winter flu, with which we are all familiar, has a death rate of roughly one in 10,000 cases. This figure came from a serious and impenetrable American website; it does the calculations and is useful if you understand statistics. American Statistics
Public Health England also publish an annual lengthy report which you might find interesting though it does not seem to spell out the odds of dying from Flu. http://Flu Report 18-19
Of course, for the winter flu many people are vaccinated which is not the case in the current situation, so crudely, with around 60% of over 60s vaccinated we could double the rate to two in 10,000 cases.
So to repeat what are the odds of dying from COVID-19?
The BBC, helpfully, have this information in a drop-down menu at the bottom of the page below, (the bit people don’t usually scroll down to) BBC story
If you are healthy then they quote 0.9% or crudely 90 in 10,000 cases but for the elderly, vulnerable or ill it rises to 11% or roughly one 1,100 in 10,000 cases.
So it seems we should not ignore it, take the sensible hygiene precautions and, in my view, ensure you have enough food at home to ensure you for can self isolate for up to three weeks.
Bit grim but here’s a picture of a kitten to cheer you up.
Keith
The esteemed population of the Wirral doth protest! It is true there are potential virus-holding suspects accommodated in an Arrowe Park hospital accommodation block but they are in a secure area and cutting off the Wirral is not required. How outrageous of you to even suggest it.
Already some of the detained have been released following no virus detection. Additionally there have been no mass break outs of detainees wishing to go for a pint. They have all been well behaved. I think you would have a better case cutting off one or all of Nottingham, Millwall and Sussex.
Did you know that Nottingham Forest’s owner has coronavirus? He was at the game against Millwall last Friday and met the Forest players. There must be a chance the entire Forest squad along with all the Millwall players will have to go into quarantine for two weeks leading to the suspension of the league.
Did you know the super spreader lives in Sussex? None of those people are detained in a safe area. Those places are more of a concern than the Wirral.
Incidentally, Greasby where I grew up is down the road from Arrowe Park. Indeed, the 12th Man, a pub four doors from my house for many years, is about a mile away.
I am considering sending you more details on the wonderful Wirral.
Roger
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