Month: February 2020

The Corona virus-COVID-19

This whole story is quite scary as one begins to wonder whether it will be the event at the beginning of the end, a precursor of it or just another bad thing.

Those of us who watch post apocalyptic movies particularly, will be struck by the similarities to a zombie movie. Over the opening credits you see newspaper headlines and ticker-tape under the news; it starts with a case or two here or there, there is the first death, it spreads to other countries and then quarantine kicks in.
Then tipping point is when the infected break out of quarantine and start to rampage. I believe the government are, or probably should be, making plans to cut off the Wirral Peninsula.

However the most serious point and the one we would all like to know, is what chance one has of dying if one contracts the virus.

The winter flu, with which we are all familiar, has a death rate of roughly one in 10,000 cases. This figure came from a serious and impenetrable American website; it does the calculations and is useful if you understand statistics. American Statistics
Public Health England also publish an annual lengthy report which you might find interesting though it does not seem to spell out the odds of dying from Flu. http://Flu Report 18-19

Of course, for the winter flu many people are vaccinated which is not the case in the current situation, so crudely, with around 60% of over 60s vaccinated we could double the rate to two in 10,000 cases.

So to repeat what are the odds of dying from COVID-19?

The BBC, helpfully, have this information in a drop-down menu at the bottom of the page below, (the bit people don’t usually scroll down to) BBC story
If you are healthy then they quote 0.9% or crudely 90 in 10,000 cases but for the elderly, vulnerable or ill it rises to 11% or roughly one 1,100 in 10,000 cases.
So it seems we should not ignore it, take the sensible hygiene precautions and, in my view, ensure you have enough food at home to ensure you for can self isolate for up to three weeks.
Bit grim but here’s a picture of a kitten to cheer you up.

Labour shortages mean higher wages

(20 February 2020) There seems to be a bit of a fuss, at the moment, about the Government’s proposals to further restrict immigration. I imagine they know what they are doing though some suggest the motives are political rather than economic.

Some businesses have bemoaned the fact that they rely on foreign workers- especially the low paid, as British residents won’t take the jobs.

This is a demonstration of the principle of failure to understand that the world is dynamic, ever changing and not static.

For example,a popular sandwich chain complained that a tiny % of their job applications in London were from British nationals. They, rightly, wish to continue their business at current levels.

However the sandwich and light refreshment industry need not be so large. Every High Street is full of such places.

If they are only inexpensive and convenient due to the low wages paid to front line staff and most of us can probably make our own sandwiches is there actually a need for so many?

Simple economics tells us that an increase in wages and improvement in conditions would lead to more job applications, raise prices and reduce the number of such establishments.

Is that necessarily a bad thing?

Similarly basic agricultural work would raise prices – but it also increases the wages of the workers so they can now afford to buy more expensive sandwiches (if they wanted to). Etc. Simple Keynesian economics.

People have pointed out the issues with the social care industry but this is wider than just low wages and is actually about the failure of successive governments to set up a proper Social Care Service.

Finally a Universal Basic Income (or negative income tax as it was known in the past) scheme would provide a sensible underpinning for many of the basic but necessary roles required in society. I will return to this at a future date

And here is a picture of a kitten.