May 2020 – Keith's Thoughts

We do not all share the Same Reality

(28 May 2020) I was pleased that the charge for foreign NHS workers to use the NHS was dropped. An (imaginary) senior source said it was my posting that tipped the balance.

Overshadowing all the important news is the story of Mr Cummings and his behaviour. I have little to add immediately other than to ponder on how many people in this country have a relative with a spare house. I am also outraged that he altered a blog post from a year or so ago to provide evidence for his interesting garden speech in a borrowed white shirt.

I wondered why this occurs, how he, and others, can be so out of touch with reality.

I then reflected on “reality” and perception. I can reveal that it is, probably, like this.

There is actual “reality” as would be seen by an extra planetary observer
Each individual perceives “reality as they think it is“- dependent on their development, upbringing, peer group and eye sight etc.
The latter leads them to seeing “reality as it should be“

It is clear, in my mind, that all individuals have different grasps on “actual reality”.

Politicians are often the most disconnected as they are constantly “spinning” events- to the extent that most actually genuinely believe what they are saying. The Instagram phenomena is another example of people adjusting other people’s perception of their own reality; certainly, perceiving one’s self through self-referencing appears to be on the increase. I await the clever sociologists to explain all this.

Similarly, the Brexiteers pictured a reality of down trodden British people under the thumb of wily foreigners. Sadly the Remain camp did not pitch the reality of sad Brits looking in at the party they could not join but tried to use logic and facts which, though objectively correct, did not chime with the perceived reality of the Leave voters.

How is this relevant to this week’s story?

Mr Cummings, Mr Johnson et al all originate from the narrow upper echelons of society. They both were privately educated (only 7% of the population are) and went to “Oxbridge”- (being part of the 1% who follow this path. To quote from the Social Mobility Commission

“The research finds that power rests with a narrow section of the population – the 7% who attend private schools and 1% who graduate from Oxford and Cambridge. The report reveals a ‘pipeline’ from fee-paying schools through to Oxbridge and into top jobs. 52% of leading figures in some professions, for example, senior judges, came through this pathway, with an average of 17% across all top jobs. 39% of cabinet ministers, at the time of the analysis in Spring 2019, were independently educated. This is in contrast with the shadow cabinet, of which just 9% attended a private school.

The full report is a salutary read (link)https://www.gov.uk/government/news/elitism-in-britain-2019

Therefore, while I feel no sympathy for their actions the frightening aspect is that they genuinely do not think they have done anything wrong; it does not just compute in their mindset.

It is obvious that reform is required.

Perceptions of reality is something I will return to-it is the Chicken Theory in action.

To cheer me up and thanks to Bridget Riley who created the picture below, showing the fluidity of perception.

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Stealing from the Warehouse

(21 May 2020) The less polluted air at the moment is a blessing and has led to record solar power output though it does exacerbate the unusual heat. This week I should have been on holiday, my last one in Europe while we were still friends. Instead- today I fume at the papers (or rather their content).

My outrage commences at the government charging our key healthcare workers, who come from abroad (from October) £624 pa to use the NHS they prop up. They, also, do not pay them enough to be allowed to come here in the first place once we are cast adrift from Europe. This is just obviously wrong and is a manifestation of the severe cognitive dissonance exhibited by leading figures in the government (though I fear they do not suffer inner pain).

However today’s reflection is about warehousing.

We have all read about “The private firm contracted to run the government’s stockpile of personal protective equipment (PPE) was beset by “chaos” at its warehouse that may have resulted in delays in deploying vital supplies to healthcare workers…, The full story is here

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/coronavirus-uk-privately-run-ppe-stockpile-chaos-movianto.

What puzzles my simple mind is why a facility as vital as the nation’s (i.e. our) supply of vital equipment is looked after by a private company- a subsidiary of an American company.

The contact is reported to be worth £10.5 million a year. Assuming it is for five years that is a cost of £52.5 million. This was awarded to OM Moviantio, OM being Owens and Minor the American owner of the subsidiary.

OM’s annual report for 2019 stares that their gross margin on revenue is 12.25%

So, assuming nothing special they would expect to get a gross margin (basically profit) of nearly six and a half million pounds over the contract (£6,431,250 to be precise) and in a year would expect £1,286,250.

There is nothing necessarily wrong with profit, I had a nice ice cream yesterday and don’t mind if the maker gets a few pennies from me- I need not eat ice cream. However, if I am in hospital the people treating me have to wear PPE, I need them to wear it and do have an issue with the warehouse company (Logistics to use posh name) making money- even more so if it goes overseas rather than being spent in this country.

The story of the warehouse failure seemed to indicate not employing enough staff (who cost money) and not organising the warehouse correctly- which is not competent.

It is here that the perils of letting private interests run national facilities becomes apparent.

In essence the workers do the work and are managed by the managers. Even if they are paid the “going rate” they have to operate with less resources (as money is taken out for profit). So even if “public” sector was slightly less efficient, for some reason, I fail to see that it could be over 12% worse. “An Efficient business” in the private sector essentially means paying workers the minimum they can get away with.

The most telling quote in the story, from the company was

the company had “executed the agreed plan” to mobilise the stockpile without any delay and in accordance with its contractual obligations.

So, there is no suggestion that the company did anything wrong -demonstrating “The Rule for Private interests taking over Public Functions”

The best and most talented people who work for them are the sales team who are very good at their jobs.

The other team of talents are the contract lawyers and contact managers who tie up the public sector in knots when anything out of the ordinary occurs.

The workers are the ones paid as little as the company can get away with.

Logistics is not quantum computing; it is complex and needs structures and processes; however, there are plenty of people who can do it and there is a whole wealth of a profession behind it.

There is an institute of Supply Chain Management https://www.ioscm.com/about/why-ioscm/

One can do a masters in this https://london.ac.uk/courses/supply-chain-management

One can become a chartered member of a professional body https://ciltuk.org.uk/About-Us

And so on.

My actual point is that there must be plenty of trained and capable people in the UK who could run this service as part of the public sector without filching a million or so a year for shareholders to spend on guns and burgers.

I also note that this facility of ours is being sold to a private French company EHDH where they will doubtless spend the million (paid from our taxes) or so on organic free-range snails and fine wines.

I assume the company is run by a very nice man- you can read an interview with him here,

Interview: Stephane Baudry – President, EHDH, France

My sad conclusion is total despair that our rulers are so ideologically biased against so many things that are public sector that they put their trust in global companies rather than the British people- I am not even suggesting corruption (which at least would make sense) it is just dogged ideology.

To cheer me up here is a picture at an early attempt at weaponising kittens-note the early death ray on its back.

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Haircuts in the New Age

(14 May 2020) Today, Nick Cave was meant to see me at the O2 tonight so he is probably feeling a little sad at the concert’s postponement.

The lockdown (sort of) continues, I think, though I remain reassured by the clear and decisive leadership shown by this government.

Undertaking social distancing while dog walking, the cold wind ruffling my unruly hair, I started thinking about haircuts. I would have had one around the start of lockdown and possibly am due another. (In half a mind to avoid the barber and grow a pony tail but I do not have a battered denim waistcoat.)

So, the missing haircut is “Lost Output” from the Gross National Product (GNP but it is not that important and leaves no lasting effect. Thus, what is the longer effect on the economy?

Roughly 250,000 people work in the industry in the UK so they will be suffering- particularly as around 54% are self-employed and have to apply for universal credit.

Further all the missing haircuts will not be replaced and it is possible that (some) people have learnt to do their own (properly).

Many Barbers and hairdressers are very small businesses. Over half of them in the industry turn over less than £99,000 a year – which is not a lot given the cost of premises, business rates and razor blades etc. Two thirds of the businesses employ less than five people and with 94% having less than ten employees, the loss of work, at least a third of the year, is likely to be significant for many in the industry. Finally, around half of the people who work in the industry are aged between 16-34.

I thought I would try to quantify this loss. My own experience cannot be extrapolated as I only pay a tenner when I go to my basement barbers- where the Lebanese gentlemen genuflect slightly and say “The usual boss?” I feel it is impolite to refuse.

I thus searched for some better figures. The industry turns over £8 billion a year (coincidentally the same figure as Apple borrowed from the US government to buy back their own shares which makes sense but is too dull to explain and does put this country in its global place.)

I assumed 45 million people pay for haircuts (excluding small children, the genetically bald and headshavers as well as those I see who appear to cut their own, outside on a dark and windy night with kitchen scissors)

This works out to a delightfully precise figure on of £178.78 per head.

I am not sure how many of my readers will want to spend this once we get the “New Normal”; I predict, sadly, the end of many small hairdressers (businesses not individuals of limited height) and jobs for younger people and a “business opportunity” for supermarkets and others who have prospered; leading to the reality of that schoolyard sneer

“Where did you get that haircut?” (pause for dramatic effect”)

“At Tesco’s? (cue cruel laughter from the onlookers).

Here’s a few kittens and a song from Nick.

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Goodbye Florian (and hopefully not) election

(7 May 2020) I would have voted (wisely) today if the elections had not been cancelled. It is also worrying when any form of democracy is removed. Although the reasons on this occasion are reasonable, I hope no precedent is set.

On a personal level I was planning to launch C.A.B.B.I.E (Campaign Against Blatant Bias in Elections) but with no electoral context this awaits another day.

It was sad that Florian Schneider died; while I did not think about him much, I have always loved the music.

I bought the album pictured at the end in 1971.The music has lasted nearly 50 years so could probably now be called classical. This album can’t be found on Spotify.

Finally, as VE day approaches (Victory in Europe not over Europe) here is a European song.

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Testing & Key Workers (1)

(5 May 2020) There has been much in the media recently on testing for Covid. It does not seem to be going as well as it should though, in consolation, limited coverage of VE day in the press, which though important, would have been far too prevalent.

If the Germans had won it would probably have not been very nice but they would have sorted out this testing. I am uncertain why we have the most deaths in Europe

Continuing on testing I remain puzzled why the government do not carry out some random testing of a large sample of the population. This would provide more solid evidence for the next steps i.e. to understand:

What % of the population have it- even with limited or non-existent symptoms
What % have had it as shown by the presence of anti-bodies- and are thus immune for at least a while
What % could potentially get it.

This would help greatly in developing the next steps.

Key Workers. My internet service was down recently but yesterday two nice engineers came along and fixed it by working on a box in the next street- a blockage in the internet pipe or something. I was grateful that they were designated “Key Workers” (KW)

I ruminated on this having had milk delivered in the morning by a KW, my refuse taken away (not by the milkman) another KW brought the post and then, while walking the dog, noticed that some others had cut the grass in the recreation ground and were emptying the bins, while the local shop was busy. Then a train rumbled by on the nearby railway line. With restored internet I then had an email from a social worker who was pleasant, helpful and also working hard

So, in a complex society every job seems important to keep the ever threatening chaos at bay. But then I wondered if every single job was actually needed in a sane society. Who are the Non-Key workers we could do without?

I have started a list with two suggestions- perhaps my readers could add some more

Jobs that Need Not Exist:

“Hedge Fund Manager” – not privet related. A Hedge Fund is an offshore investment fund, typically formed as a private limited partnership, that engages in speculation using credit or borrowed capital.

I.E. they make money for the rich, while being very well paid themselves through complicated, obscure financial transactions which benefit only themselves and their investors- not the population at large. If they get it wrong, they have limited liability so they are not responsible for the losses.

Jacob Rees-Mogg owns 15% of a Hedge Fund.

“Tax Avoidance Expert” Everything they do is completely legal but uses a combination of loopholes in the complexity of the tax system along with the use of off shore companies and all that. The only serve to help the rich keep more of their money and deprive the government (i.e. us) of money for much needed public services.

I could rant on for ages- to cheer me up here are three nice kittens.

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